Designing energy policy under uncertainty

Designing Advanced Energy Systems Under Uncertainty

This paper presents a new and efficient method, based on stochastic annealing, to identify optimal design configurations from a large number of process alternatives, considering the effects of uncertainty. Case studies of an integrated coal gasification combined cycle (IGCC) power plant are presented to illustrate this method. For this case, the new stochastic synthesis framework reduced comput...

Investment in Alternative Energy Technologies under Physical and Policy Uncertainty

Policymakers have often backed alternative energy technologies, e.g., nuclear power, due to their relatively low operating costs and emissions. However, they have also been quick to respond to public perceptions about the safety of such plants by suspending construction or even decommissioning existing facilities. We address public concerns about physical plant risks along with stochastic marke...

Monetary Policy under Financial Uncertainty ∗

This paper considers the role of monetary policy in mitigating the effects of financial crises. I suppose that the economy occasionally but infrequently experiences crises, where financial variables directly affect the broader real economy. I analyze the formulation of monetary policy under such financial uncertainty, where policymakers recognize the possibility of financial crises, which leads...

Environmental Policy Aid Under Uncertainty

Strategic Trade Policy under Uncertainty

This paper extends the Brander-Spencer (1985) model by considering market uncertainty, exploring nonlinear policy, and examining ̄rms' choices of strategic variables. By investigating the interrelationship between trade policy and market conduct, we ̄nd that unlike the oftenstudied linear policy, a nonlinear policy can in°uence the domestic ̄rm's choice of strategic variables and hence alter th...